Joe Biden will drop out of 2024 presidential race, top JPMorgan strategist predicts
President Biden will not run for re-election during a tumultuous year that will see parts of the country suffer rolling blackouts, the release of an inhaled COVID vaccine and a boycott over driverless cars, a top JPMorgan Chase strategist predicted.
Michael Cembalest, who heads the market and investment strategy unit in the Wall Street bank’s asset management division, made the shocking forecasts in his list of ‘Ten Surprises’ for 2024 over the weekend.
Tops among the budding Nostradamus’ prophesies was that 81-year-old Biden will drop out of the race “sometime between Super Tuesday and the November election, citing health concerns.”
“Super Tuesday” refers to the March 5 presidential primaries and caucuses that will be held in more than a dozen states, including California, Texas, Massachusetts, Vermont and North Carolina.
The winner of the “Super Tuesday” contests is considered the heavy favorite to eventually capture the party’s nomination for president.
Cembalest issued his predictions in newsletter as a tribute to former JPMorgan market strategist Byron Wien, who had made 10 prognostications every year for nearly four decades before his death last year at age 90.
Also on Cembalest’s list was that Americans will reject self-driving electric vehicles following several accidents that have roiled San Francisco, and a warning that blackouts will strike New York, Texas, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Tennessee due to a natural gas shortage.
He predicted that a new, inhaled COVID vaccine, currently under development, will be available this year and sharply reduce transmission of the virus, that the US dollar would remain stable and that the Russian invasion of Ukraine would drag on this year without a ceasefire.
He also thinks that stocks of US regional banks will do well despite the instability in the lending sector in the past year.
His prediction that Biden would bow out was partly based on the president’s low approval rating — despite “around 10% job creation since his inauguration.”
The strategist noted that Biden’s high job creation figures are “the by-product of his inauguration coinciding with the rollout of COVID vaccines and a reopening US economy.”
Cembalest did not predict who might take Biden’s place as the Democratic candidate.
The Post has sought comment from the White House.
Vice President Kamala Harris is unpopular with the public — with more than half (55.5%) disapproving of her job performance, according to the FiveThirtyEight data and statistics news site.
Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) and self-help author Marianne Williamson are the only other Democrats who have declared their candidacies.
The two long-shot candidates will debate one another in New Hampshire on Monday. Biden will not participate.
Another Democrat, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., intends to run as an independent candidate.
Despite concerns over Biden’s age and mental acuity, the incumbent remains the overwhelming favorite to recapture his party’s nomination, with polls showing three in four Dems favoring him over Williamson and Phillips, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Former President Donald Trump remains the overwhelming front-runner in a race against GOP hopefuls Nikki Haley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and biotech mogul Vivek Ramaswamy.
If the presidential election were held today, Biden would lose to Trump, according to the most recent public opinion surveys.
