Joel Embiid’s MVP case is dead despite near-favorite status
There won’t be a repeat NBA MVP in 2024.
After being the NBA MVP favorite for most of the season and being ranked No. 1 by voters in ESPNs Straw Poll, Embiid is on-pace to fall short of the mandated 65 games to get the award, having already missed nine out of 36 possible games.
In the 82-game schedule, players can miss a maximum of 17 games; Embiid is already past the halfway mark, and there’s reason to believe he will easily pass 17.
Embiid has been nursing a swollen knee for much of the season, missing two games last week due to the injury.
Even when Embiid was mostly healthy last season, he played in just 66 games.
It is reasonable to expect the 76ers to rest Embiid further down the stretch once playoff seedings are about decided.
Embiid missed only four of his last 23 games. Last year’s MVP winner will likely be prioritizing postseason health over a second MVP award, as he’ll have to play nearly every night to qualify for the MVP award – which he has never done in his career.
In 2022, the 76ers center appeared in 68 games, the most he has played in his career.
If he replicated that career-best pace for the remainder of this season, he would be missing 1.7 games for every 10 played.
It still wouldn’t be enough to qualify for the MVP award. It is past time to look for other candidates.
| 2024 NBA MVP odds |
|---|
| Nikola Jokic +180 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +330 |
| Luka Doncic +420 |
| Joel Embiid +450 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo 14/1 |
| Jayson Tatum 34/1 |
| Anthony Edwards 40/1 |
| Kevin Durant 60/1 |
| De’Aaron Fox 60/1 |
| Devin Booker 60/1 |
| Tyrese Haliburton 60/1 |
| Anthony Davis 150/1 |
| LeBron James 150/1 |
| Kawhi Leonard 150/1 |
| Stephen Curry 150/1 |
That leaves us to who can actually win the award, and there are many factors at play.
An NBA MVP candidate needs to have massive statistical output with a combination of media narrative and team success.
The back half of that equation would likely boot Mavericks guard Luka Doncic, as Dallas has had one of the easiest schedules up until now and features the sixth-hardest remaining schedule.
They are projected to win just 44 wins, according to powerrankingsguru.com.
Dallas is 11-9 in their last 20 games; they would need to markedly improve their roster in order for Doncic to leap over candidates such as Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilegous-Alexander.
As it sits, this market is not correctly priced; Embiid should be 10/1 or higher; he’s unlikely to play the mandated 65 games.
This is where you start building your positions around some long shots and a few other contenders.
| Player | PER | True Shooting | PTS. | REB. | AST. | FG percent | 3-point percent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | 31.72 (2nd) | 64.7 | 25.5 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 57.4 | 34.8 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 31.40 (3rd) | 64.8 | 31.4 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 55.2 | 35.2 |
| Luka Doncic | 27.57 (5th) | 61.4 | 33.6 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 48.5 | 38.0 |
| Joel Embiid | 34.61 (1st) | 64.7 | 34.6 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 53.5 | 36.0 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 29.72 (4th) | 64.9 | 31.4 | 11.5 | 5.9 | 60.7 | 23.8 |
| Kawhi Leonard | 23.22 (13th) | 62.5 | 24.0 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 51.8 | 43.2 |
Build around Jokic to start, at +180 odds, as he’s only missed one game this season, putting him easily on pace to hit the 65-game mark.
From there, Antetokounmpo is badly mispriced at 14/1 considering his team is 25-12 and has still underperformed in some aspects.
Further team success gives “The Greek Freak” plenty of value at odds.
Way down the board is Kawhi Leonard, who is having one of the better seasons of his career.
Betting on the NBA?
He is currently 150/1 on FanDuel, and with how dominant the Clippers have been of late he’s a smash bet there.
His counting stats will never rival that of Jokic or Antetokounmpo, but his defensive prowess will need to be taken into account more than most.
Leonard should be closer to 80/1 and is a good bet since he’s only missed three games so far in 2024.
